Can Usher Hold Off a Muni Long R&B Clean Sweep at 2025 Grammys?

Nominees: “After Hours” (Diovanna Frazier, Alex Goldblatt, Kehlani Parrish, Khris Riddick-Tynes & Daniel Upchurch); “Burning” (Ronald Banful & Temilade Openiyi); “Here We Go (Uh Oh)” (Sara Diamond, Sydney Floyd, Marisela Jackson, Courtney Jones, Carl McCormick & Kelvin Wooten); “Ruined Me” (Jeff Gitelman, Priscilla Renea & Kevin Theodore); “Saturn” (Rob Bisel, Carter Lang, Solána Rowe, Jared Solomon & Scott Zhang)

Analysis: It’s always a good sign when a song earns nominations in both songwriting and performance categories, which means Coco Jones (“Here We Go”) and SZA (“Saturn”) have particularly strong chances at taking this one home. Jones won best R&B performance last year with “ICU,” but lost best R&B song to SZA’s “Snooze.” “Saturn,” though a hit, wasn’t as big of a smash as “Snooze,” but SZA’s seemingly unstoppable momentum and forthcoming co-headlining North American stadium tour with Kendrick Lamar (a seven-time nominee this year), could help her win the trophy.

Nonetheless, the frontrunner across the R&B field is probably Muni Long. Revenge didn’t exactly light the charts on fire (it missed both the Billboard 200 and genre-specific album rankings), but the record spawned three consecutive top three Adult R&B Airplay singles, including the chart-toppers “Ruined Me” and “Make Me Forget.” With “Ruined Me” earning a lot of love from R&B circles and Long remaining a consistent cultural presence via performances and candid music industry revelations, this could very well be the Year of Muni Long.

Kehlani earned three nods this year, and this is her first nomination in this category. “After Hours” was one of the few uptempo R&B hits from the last year, which could help its chances in a songwriting category. Tems‘ “Burning” probably has the same chance of winning as “After Hours”; it’s a poignant track that finds the crossover star soaring in a leading role after being a key featured player on Grammy-approved hits like Future‘s “Wait For U” and Wizkid‘s “Essence.”

We’ll call this category for Muni Long; “Ruined Me” is fresh, commercially successful, critically acclaimed, and features the most-nominated R&B artist of the night.

Prediction: Muni Long, “Ruined Me”

Look Out For: SZA, “Saturn”

Nominees: “Guidance” (Jhené Aiko); “Residuals” (Chris Brown); “Here We Go (Uh Oh)” (Coco Jones); “Made for Me (Live on BET)” (Muni Long); “Saturn” (SZA)

Analysis: Long and Jones are the only previous winners nominated this year, so they’re likely ahead of the pack. Jones is this year’s defending champ, and “Here We Go,” with its five-week stint atop Adult R&B Airplay, is as strong a contender as “ICU.” Nonetheless, “Made for Me” — which hit No. 20 on the Hot 100 — is easily the biggest ballad of the bunch. A live version of a song has never won in this category, but if a live rendition does triumph, expect it to be Long’s viral Soul Train Awards performance.

SZA’s “Saturn,” which reached No. 6 on the Hot 100, is also nominated here; it’s a fine contender, but some voters may feel that they’ve already adequately rewarded the SOS era last year with its three victories, including best progressive R&B album. And what about Chris Brown? “Residuals” has stuck around the lower rungs of the Hot 100 for nearly five months, and his smash 11:11 tour has given him a lot of good press. But there’s also the controversy that led up to his blockbuster South Africa show and the explosive new documentary about his alleged history of violence — could those unsavory moments prevent him from taking home his second career Grammy? Jhené Aiko’s “Guidance” is also nominated; she’s never won this category and is currently between album cycles, so there may not be much passion for her here. Case in point: this is her sole nomination this year.

Given her history in the category and her overall momentum, this one is probably Muni Long’s too.

Prediction: Muni Long, “Made for Me (Live on BET)”

Look Out For: Coco Jones, “Here We Go (Uh Oh)”

Nominees: “Wet” (Marsha Ambrosius); “Can I Have This Groove” (Kenyon Dixon); “No Lie” (Lalah Hathaway featuring Michael McDonald); “Make Me Forget” (Muni Long); “That’s You” (Lucky Daye)

Analysis: There isn’t any overlap between R&B song and traditional R&B performance this year, but Marsha Ambrosius and Kenyon Dixon are the only artists without any other nominations. That would normally put them at the bottom of the bunch, but let’s not be too rash. Dixon has only ever been nominated in traditional R&B performance, and he’s earned a nod in this category three times in the past four years. Ambrosius, for her part, boasts 10 career nominations. A “Wet” victory would give the English singer her very first trophy.

Lalah Hathaway is tied with Beyoncé as the all-time winner in this category (three wins each), so it would be unwise to bet against her Michael McDonald-assisted “No Lie.” It also helps that her Vantablack record is competing in R&B album. Lucky Daye is also one to keep an eye on: He’s already a Grammy winner and his Algorithm LP picked up key nods for R&B album and engineered album, non-classical. “That’s You,” which features writing and production credits from Bruno Mars and D’Mile, spent two weeks atop Adult R&B Airplay, so it’s far from a meek contender.

That leaves Muni Long’s “Make Me Forget,” an Adult R&B Airplay chart-topper that, perhaps, lacks the widespread cultural presence of “Made for Me” and “Ruined Me.” Long is also competing here for the first time this year, so it’s hard to say what the genre’s more traditional voters think of her and her work.

We’ll call this one for Lucky Daye, since he has some history here, as well as voter support in other categories this cycle.

Prediction: Lucky Daye, “That’s You”

Look Out For: Lalah Hathaway featuring Michael McDonald, “No Lie”

Nominees: So Glad to Know You (AverySunshine); En Route (Durand Bernarr); Bando Stone & the New World (Childish Gambino); Crash (Kehlani); Why Lawd? (NxWorries — Anderson .Paak & Knxwledge)

Analysis: This category is all over the place this year, and there certainly isn’t an outright cultural and commercial behemoth like last year’s victor, SZA’s SOS.

The frontrunner here is probably Why Lawd? With a No. 7 debut on Top Album Sales and the pull of eight-time Grammy-winner Anderson. Paak, the NxWorries project will probably take this one home. Not only does the set feature both legends (Snoop Dogg) and rising stars (Rae Khalil), but it’s also perfectly representative of R&B that cherishes the genre’s roots, while venturing into new spaces that incorporate notes of hip-hop, jazz, soft rock and more.

AverySunshine and Durand Bernarr are both first-time Grammy nominees this year — but their only nods are in this category. They likely don’t have the voter support yet to pull off a win, and every album that has won this category in the 2020s — bar Thundercat‘s It Is What It Is (2021) — had at least one additional nomination. And to Thundercat’s credit, he wasn’t a first-time nominee or winner when It Is What It Is triumphed.

That leaves Kehlani’s Crash, which earned the lowest Billboard 200 peak out of all of her studio albums (No. 25). “After Hours,” the album’s lead single, did earn a best R&B song nod, but the record got no love elsewhere. Childish Gambino’s Bando Stone is in a similar spot. He’s been nominated (and lost) here before, and Bando Stone wasn’t nearly as commercially or culturally impactful as “Awaken, My Love!”

With two nominees lacking clear passion from voters and two other nominees being first-timers, it’s probably safest to bet on NxWorries’ Why Lawd? for the win.

Prediction: NxWorries — Anderson .Paak & Knxwledge, Why Lawd?

Look Out For: Kehlani, Crash

Nominees: 11:11 (Deluxe) (Chris Brown); Vantablack (Lalah Hathaway); Revenge (Muni Long); Algorithm (Lucky Daye); Coming Home (Usher)

Analysis: This is probably the toughest category in the R&B field this year; there’s a plausible scenario where any of these five albums goes home with the gold.

A deluxe record has never won this category, but Chris Brown could change that with 11:11 (Deluxe). The record spawned Grammy-nominated hits across multiple genres (“Residuals” in R&B and “Sensational” in African music performance), and it was one of the few R&B albums to manage a Billboard 200 top 10 debut in 2023. Nonetheless, we may still be in a period where the Recording Academy is cool with nominating Breezy, but not awarding him. His 2012 best R&B album victory (F.A.M.E.) remains his only Grammy win.

Lalah Hathway is one of the most-nominated artists in this category’s history (three), and she last won in 2017. Her Vantablack LP also spawned a nomination for best traditional R&B performance (“No Lie”), so there’s clear support for her as well. The same goes for Lucky Daye’s Algorithm, which boasts two additional nods this year. Daye’s last two studio LPs were nominated here, but both records lost; that opens up an interesting narrative for him, despite already having a best progressive R&B album win to his name with Table for Two (2022).

Much noise was made over Usher having never won best R&B album earlier this year. In actuality, Usher has never competed in this category: He won twice (2005 and 2011) in best contemporary R&B album, a category that was discontinued in 2012. Between his blockbuster tour and Super Bowl halftime show, Usher was far and away the most consistently present artist in this category this cycle. While the album isn’t his best from a commercial or critical standpoint, a Coming Home victory would allow the Recording Academy to give the icon his flowers while he can still smell them. And maybe he’ll finally get to accept a Grammy on the telecast.

And then there’s Muni Long. As the most-nominated artist across the R&B field, she’s definitely the frontrunner here. She scored nominations for three individual tracks from the same record; that’s something only Beyoncé and Charli XCX can also say this year. If the Recording Academy chooses to bookmark Usher’s comeback year with a win here, Muni could still take home one or two other trophies — so maybe that’s the ideal outcome.

Prediction: Usher, Coming Home

Look Out For: Muni Long, Revenge