CMA Awards 2024 Predictions: Who Will Win the Top Honors?

The 58th annual CMA Awards are set for Wednesday, Nov. 20 at Nashville’s Bridgestone Arena. Two-time CMA Award entertainer of the year winner Luke Bryan returns to co-host with NFL hall of famer Peyton Manning and reigning CMA entertainer of the year Lainey Wilson. Morgan Wallen leads this year’s nominees with seven nominations, including for entertainer of the year, followed by Cody Johnson and Chris Stapleton with five nominations, and Post Malone and Lainey Wilson with four nominations.

The eligibility period for the 2024 show, which will air live on ABC at 8 p.m. ET, is July 1, 2023 to June 30, 2024. The 58th Annual CMA Awards is set to broadcast live on Wednesday (8:00–11:00 p.m. ET) on ABC and next day on Hulu. 

According to CMA rules, “singles, albums, music videos and qualified music products for the annual show must have been released or reached peak national prominence during the eligibility period” to qualify. More than 7,000 members of the country music industry vote for the nominees and winners through three rounds of voting.

Here are Billboard’s predictions on who will emerge victorious in select categories, from Melinda Newman (executive editor, West Coast and Nashville) and Jessica Nicholson (staff writer, Nashville).

Entertainer of the year

Luke Combs

Jelly Roll

Chris Stapleton

Morgan Wallen

Lainey Wilson

Newman: Jelly Roll replaces Carrie Underwood in what otherwise is a replay of last year. Wilson, who won in 2023, continues to have a strong streak, but she faces steep competition from label mate Jelly Roll, who has smashed it on his first headlining arena tour. Stapleton is looking for his first win here in eight nominations, but it’s also hard to deny two-time winner Combs and Wallen, both of whom had sold-out stadium tours this year. An extremely tough and competitive category. It also shows what a good job country music has done in building the next generation of superstars: Stapleton is the most seasoned veteran in this category, and his first solo album only came out nine years ago.

Will win: Morgan Wallen

Nicholson: Each artist nominated here has had a stellar year, with album releases and/or massive tours. Wilson won this category last year, and could very well take it home a second time. Meanwhile, her labelmate Jelly Roll has been seemingly ubiquitous this year, thanks to his Billboard 200-topping album Beautifully Broken and its corresponding headlining arena tour. Combs has previously won twice in the category, while Morgan Wallen looks to take home his first EOY win. Both have both led massive stadium tours and logged chart-topping hits. Stapleton earns his eighth nomination in the category, on the strength of recent hits such as “White Horse” and this year continued his All-American Road Show Tour. Given Wallen’s stadium-headlining status and massive all-genre chart hits this year, it seems likely that he will earn the EOY win.

Will win: Morgan Wallen

Male vocalist of the year

Luke Combs

Jelly Roll

Cody Johnson

Chris Stapleton

Morgan Wallen

Newman: The line-up repeats from last year, when Stapleton took home his seventh trophy, extending his record for most wins in the category. With his bluesy, rangy growl, Stapleton has a once-in-a-generation voice and Combs has been the only male vocalist who has been able to break his strangle-hold on the category, winning in 2019 and 2020. Stapleton faces stiff competition again, but just throw on “White Horse” or any other song from Higher and it feels like Stapleton will win again.

Will win: Chris Stapleton

Nicholson: Stapleton has taken home this category for the past three consecutive years, and given his pair of chart hits this year (the top 5 Country Airplay hit “White Horse” and top 20 hit “Think I’m in Love With You”), he’s in a good position to take home the honor again this year. However, he has quite the battle ahead of him — particularly from stadium headliner Wallen, whose collab with Post Malone was a six-week Billboard Hot 100-topper. Meanwhile, Combs has continued his own headlining stadium tour and took successful creative risks on his concept album Fathers & Sons. Johnson has shown himself a torchbearer for traditional country, with two songs he recorded earning song of the year nominations. Jelly Roll was named new artist of the year last year and his career has only skyrocketed since, with a headlining arena tour, a No. 1 Billboard 200 debut album and his joyous, megawatt personality garnering loads of media attention.

Will win: Jelly Roll

Female vocalist of the year 

Kelsea Ballerini

Ashley McBryde

Megan Moroney

Kacey Musgraves

Lainey Wilson

Newman: McBryde, who has been nominated five times, and Ballerini, who has been nominated seven, are both going for their first wins here, as is Moroney, who received her first nom this year. Wilson won the past two years, while Musgraves — who took home the trophy in 2019, received her first nomination since 2020. All are deserving, but it feels like Wilson is building a dynasty that could rival that of Miranda Lambert — who won six years in a row, and then, after losing to Carrie Underwood, came back and won again. (Underwood is no slouch here, having been nominated 13 times and winning five times).

Winner: Lainey Wilson

Nicholson: Each artist has had a strong year, with headlining tours and/or album releases. McBryde, who picks up a fifth nomination in this category, released The Devil I Know. Musgraves, who previously won this category in 2019, released Deeper Well. Moroney, who headlined her own tour and opened for Kenny Chesney this year, earns her first female vocalist of the year nomination this year on the strength of releases including “No Caller ID.” Wilson, the reigning CMA entertainer of the year, also won in this category the past two years, and has been headlining her Country’s Cool Again Tour and earned a top 20 Hot Country Songs hit with “Hang Tight Honey,” ahead of her August-released album Whirlwind. Ballerini picks up her seventh nomination in the category. This past year, she earned a top 20 Country Songs hit with her Noah Kahan collaboration “Cowboys Cry Too,” an early look at her October-released new album Patterns. Still, this looks like Wilson’s to lose.

Will win: Lainey Wilson

Vocal group of the year

Lady A

Little Big Town

Old Dominion

The Red Clay Strays

Zac Brown Band

Newman: This category has remained largely static—this year, The Red Clay Strays replace Midland, but the other four nominees remain the same as they have largely for the past five years. Old Dominion has won for the past six years… and Little Big Town for the six consecutive years before that and Lady A for three years in a row before that. You get the idea. Zac Brown Band has been nominated 13 times and not taken home the crown. Hot (relative) newcomers Red Clay Strays could pull off some kind of miraculous upset, but they haven’t broken through significantly yet. It’s another year for Old Dominion, who will try to look surprised when they win.

Will win: Old Dominion

Nicholson: The past year was fairly quiet for some of the nominees. Three of the nominated groups — Little Big Town, Zac Brown Band and Lady A — did not release an album during the eligibility period, though Old Dominion released the album Memory Lane, spearheaded by the title track and the Megan Moroney collab “Can’t Break Up Now.” However, ZBB joined Kenny Chesney on his 2024 tour, while Little Big Town revealed a co-headlining tour with Sugarland. New to the category this year is The Red Clay Strays, who earned a breakthrough hit with Hot 100 hit “Wondering Why” and followed with a sterling album Made By These Moments. Still, look for six-time vocal group of the year winners Old Dominion to extend their winning streak here.

Will win: Old Dominion

Vocal duo of the year  

Brooks & Dunn

Brothers Osborne

Dan + Shay

Maddie & Tae

The War and Treaty

Newman: It’s the exact same duos competing this year as last year. In the last eight years, the award has gone to reigning champs Brothers Osborne six times and Dan + Shay two times. Brooks & Dunn hold the record for 14 non-consecutive wins spanning 1992-2006. The War & Treaty could score their first win here given the love Nashville feels for them and their immense talent, but we thought that last year. Dan + Shay have had a stellar year with a sold-out arena tour and hits from their album, Bigger Houses, and a holiday album. Feels like time for the pair to follow up its ACM Awards top duo win earlier this year with another CMA.

Will win: Dan + Shay

Nicholson: This year’s category features several previous nominees and winners. Brooks & Dunn, who have won in the category 14 previous times, are again nominated, thanks to their headlining Reboot 2024 tour (the duo also recently released the Reboot II album). Meanwhile, Dan + Shay released Bigger Houses, spearheaded by the single “Save Me The Trouble.” Brothers Osborne released “Break Mine” and issued a self-titled album, while The War and Treaty issued “Called Me By Your Name” and made several high-profile appearances this year. Maddie & Tae released “Heart They Didn’t Break” ahead of their 2024 EP What a Woman Can Do. Look for Dan + Shay to return to the winner’s circle here.

Will win: Dan + Shay

New artist of the year

Megan Moroney

Shaboozey

Nate Smith

Mitchell Tenpenny

Zach Top

Bailey Zimmerman

Newman: No offense to Mitchell Tenpenny, but given that he’s been having hits since 2018, it seems odd that he was nominated this year. Zimmerman should have been nominated last year but wasn’t. Zach Top is breaking through now and his star is shining brightly, but he hasn’t had the kind of year that Moroney, Shaboozey or Smith have, in part because he started later. Artists can be nominated twice for this award, and Moroney repeats her nomination from last year. It’s a solid crop of artists — and the category is loaded with acts that seem like they have long futures ahead of them. It’s a bit of a coin toss between Moroney, Smith and Shaboozey and it’s hard to bet against someone who dominated this summer’s country and pop charts like Shaboozey, but it feels like Moroney has the wind at her back.

Will win: Megan Moroney

Nicholson: Several of the artists nominated for new artist of the year reached new heights this year. Shaboozey scored a massive hit on several charts including 18 weeks (and counting) atop the Hot 100 with “A Bar Song (Tipsy).” Megan Moroney notched multiple Hot 100 hits, including “No Caller ID” and “Am I Okay?,” while Zach Top has garnered considerable buzz since releasing his debut country album Cold Beer & Country Music earlier this year, and has two songs on the Country Airplay chart at present. Nate Smith earned a multi-week No. 1 with “World on Fire,” and followed with another hit “Bulletproof.” Meanwhile, Tenpenny released his new album, The 3rd, in September. Zimmerman earned a No. 1 Country Airplay hit with “Where It Ends,” and had opening slots on tours for Wallen, Luke Bryan and Kane Brown. Still, Shaboozey’s cross-genre hit is tough to deny here.

Will win: Shaboozey

Album of the year  

Award goes to artist, producer(s) and mix engineer(s)

Deeper Well – Kacey Musgraves; Producers: Ian Fitchuk, Kacey Musgraves, Daniel Tashian; Mix Engineers: Shawn Everett, Konrad Snyder

Fathers & Sons – Luke Combs; Producers: Luke Combs, Chip Matthews, Jonathan Singleton; Mix Engineer: Chip Matthews

Higher – Chris Stapleton; Producers: Dave Cobb, Chris Stapleton, Morgane Stapleton; Mix Engineer: Vance Powell

Leather – Cody Johnson; Producer: Trent Willmon; Mix Engineer: Jack Clarke

Whitsitt Chapel – Jelly Roll; Producers: Andrew Baylis, Brock Berryhill, Zach Crowell, Jesse Frasure, David Garcia, Kevin “Thrasher” Gruft, Austin Nivarel, David Ray Stevens; Mix Engineers: Jeff Braun, Jim Cooley

Newman: Last year, Wilson’s Bell Bottom Country won, but her follow-up, Whirlwind, won’t be eligible until next year because of the qualifying dates (July 1, 2023-June 30, 2024). Those dates are somewhat flexible and adjusted for when an album had its greatest impact — which is how Whitsitt Chapel, which came out June 2, 2023, finds itself here. Musgraves, Combs and Stapleton have all won before, and every solo album released by Stapleton has received a nomination, so it’s impossible to bet against him. But I’m going to anyway: An album like Whitsitt Chapel doesn’t come along very often, and it is only going to grow in importance as time passes. An album about salvation and redemption with bonafide radio hits like “Need a Favor” and “Save Me,” Whitsitt Chapel changed the tenor of country radio.

Will win: Whitsitt Chapel

Nicholson: Musgraves’ Deeper Well and Stapleton’s Higher are both up for Grammy best country album nominations as well the CMA album of the year honor, further heightening their credentials here. Combs crafted his familial-focused project Fathers & Sons to great acclaim, while Johnson’s Leather included hits including “Dirt Cheap” and “The Painter,” both of which are up for song of the year. Jelly Roll’s breakthrough album Whitsitt Chapel launched multiple hits for the Tennessee native, including “Halfway to Hell” and “Need a Favor.” Musgraves, Stapleton and Combs have all won in the category, but look for awards-show favorite Stapleton to take home the win.

Will win: Higher

Single of the year

Award goes to artist(s), producer(s) and mix engineer(s)

“A Bar Song (Tipsy)” – Shaboozey; Producers: Sean Cook, Nevin Sastry; Mix Engineer: Raul Lopez

“Dirt Cheap” – Cody Johnson; Producer: Trent Willmon; Mix Engineer: Jack Clarke

“I Had Some Help” – Post Malone (Feat. Morgan Wallen); Producers: Louis Bell, Charlie Handsome, Hoskins; Mix Engineer: Ryan Gore

“Watermelon Moonshine” – Lainey Wilson; Producer: Jay Joyce; Mix Engineers: Jason Hall, Jay Joyce

“White Horse” – Chris Stapleton; Producers: Dave Cobb, Chris Stapleton, Morgane Stapleton; Mix Engineer: Vance Powell

Newman: After Wallen’s “Last Night” wasn’t nominated last year despite spending 16 weeks at No. 1, it feels like his and Post Malone’s insanely catchy “I Had Some Help,” which was Billboard’s Song of the Summer, will take the prize here. But “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” has insinuated its way into listeners’ hearts and set the record for the most weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 for an artist with no accompanying acts at 17 weeks. Some voters may want to go more traditional Nashville, and could go for Stapleton or Johnson, both of whom have won before — but we think we’re going to be raising a glass to Post Malone and Wallen.

Will win: “I Had Some Help”

Nicholson: The single of the year nominees for 2024 are an array of sounds, from pop-entrenched smashes, blistering country-rock tracks and staunchly country entries. All five nominated singles connected with fans this year, but the double star power of Post Malone and Morgan Wallen could be enough to earn the win.

Will win: “I Had Some Help”

Song of the year 

Award goes to songwriter(s)

“Burn It Down”; Songwriters: Hillary Lindsey, Parker McCollum, Lori McKenna, Liz Rose

“Dirt Cheap”; Songwriter: Josh Phillips

“I Had Some Help”; Songwriters: Louis Bell, Ashley Gorley, Charlie Handsome, Hoskins, Austin Post, Ernest Keith Smith, Morgan Wallen, Chandler Paul Walters

“The Painter”; Songwriters: Benjy Davis, Kat Higgins, Ryan Larkins

“White Horse”; Songwriters: Chris Stapleton, Dan Wilson

Newman: These are all strong selections, and all reached the top 10 on Billboard’s Country Airplay chart. Though this is a songwriter’s award, credit to Cody Johnson for having an unerring song sense with both “Dirt Cheap” and “The Painter.” “I Had Some Help” is a bit of an outlier here, given its bouncy, lightweight nature, which contrasts with the more serious nature of the other songs. That — and the fact that it was an enduring crossover smash — may play in its favor, but we like it more for single of the year than song. The intensity of “Burn It Down” and “White Horse” still hit every time we hear either, and a great song should continue to wear well. A very slight nod here to “White Horse” and its driving, western swagger. 

Will win: “White Horse”

Nicholson: Cody Johnson seems to be a songwriter’s not-so-secret weapon in this category, as two Johnson-recorded songs made the final nominees: “Dirt Cheap,” a solo write from Josh Phillips, and “The Painter,” written by Benjy Davis, Ryan Larkins and Kat Higgins. The song of the year category generally goes to songs with detailed storylines and/or heartfelt sentiments, and while this year’s nominated songs ranged from rock-fueled heartbreakers (“White Horse,” “Burn It Down”) to smash radio hits (“I Had Some Help”), the sentimental fan-favorite “Dirt Cheap” could take home the win.

Will win: “Dirt Cheap”