Crystal Baller: 10 Music Business Predictions About How the Industry Will Shake Out in 2025

We’re a week into 2025, and Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have gone full MAGA and parts of Los Angeles are burning.

Much like the world in general, the music business seems to be at an inflection point, its dominant subscription-streaming business model challenged by its success. As growth slows in the U.S. and Europe, labels and artists must contend with an avalanche of new music, disruption from distribution startups, and a possible ban on TikTok in the U.S. Then there’s the looming threat of generative artificial intelligence, which raises the uncomfortable prospect that computers could write songs about a dark future in which computers write songs about a dark future.

In a lighter spirit, here are my predictions for the coming year: the good, the bad, the ugly — and the nerdy.

TikTok’s time will not run out — but the issue won’t go away

The case against TikTok is tighter than many people assume — the U.S. has always restricted foreign ownership of some media (which is why Sony is the only company that owned a movie studio but not a television network). But at a time when both political parties need to show that they matter to young people, the availability of TikTok is a tempting problem to solve. So it’s easy to imagine a compromise — which will last unless tensions rise with China and mysteriously popular videos portray Taiwan as a breakaway province.

Catalogs will continue to sell — but it will be obvious that some were overvalued

The market for publishing catalogs and other rights depends mostly on economics, but demographics matter, too. Baby Boomer performers and songwriters are at an age when they’re doing estate planning, and since many have led complicated personal lives, it’s often simpler to sell assets rather than divide them. That, and streaming growth, will keep the market steady overall. But it will emerge that at least some of these acquisitions weren’t worth the price. Any market only has so many blue-chip assets.

Trump’s administration will settle the federal antitrust case against Live Nation — but some states won’t back off

President Joe Biden’s administration made antitrust a priority, and the Justice Department’s case against Live Nation symbolized its ambition. (The case is complicated.) Most Republicans disdain antitrust enforcement and vice-president-elect JD Vance seems to favor it, but Trump’s consistent desire for visible wins on popular issues will tempt him to settle and declare victory. The states that joined the Justice Department case might not agree, however, and they could continue to pressure the company in other ways.

This will be the winter of our diss-content — but it will not last

Some feuds only have winners. Together, the six tracks at the center of the rap battle between Kendrick Lamar and Drake generated nearly $15.4 million in streaming, digital sales and publishing revenue by late November, according to a Billboard estimate based on Luminate data. No wonder the Drake freestyle “Fighting Irish” already appeared briefly on Jan. 3. Expect a few more lyrical salvos, one or two of which could do well. After that, hip-hop fans will move on.

More mergers are coming — at high prices

The Trump administration may move to limit market concentration in technology and some sectors of the media business, but the recorded music business won’t be a priority. If European regulators approve Universal Music Group’s acquisition of Downtown Music Holdings, another label group will buy another distributor. At what price, though? Companies, like catalogs, are selling for high multiples — especially distributors, which are strategically important to maintain market share and ensure access to talent. How much is too much? We’ll soon find out.

Concert ticket prices will keep rising — while Live Nation gets the blame and the money

As my colleague Dave Brooks points out, some concertgoers have had sticker shock longer than others have been alive, yet they keep paying top dollar to see their favorite artists. Prices will rise most for big shows, boosted by FOMO and the ability to tell everyone you were there on social media. Live Nation will take the blame and make more money, even though prices have more to do with supply and demand — there are only so many tickets to go around.

“Streaming 2.0” will take off — and we’ll figure out what it means

Subscription streaming saved the recorded music business, but its flaws are starting to show. Online platforms are full of AI elevator music and sped-up versions of existing songs. Meanwhile, rightsholders are pushing for a price increase. The solution, according to UMG, is “Streaming 2.0,” a concept introduced at UMG’s capital markets day presentation and mentioned again in the company’s announcement of its new deal with Amazon Music. The basic idea is to segment pricing, to drive up ARPU by offering more value to superfans. This is the year we’ll get some details.

Streaming services will set themselves apart from rivals — at least a little

The tiered pricing model implied by Streaming 2.0 means online platforms could be incentivized to offer additional content or functionality for superfans. Exclusives died in 2016, when the industry’s focus was on adding subscribers. Now it needs to get some of them to pay more. Imagine extra tracks, like those that go to big-box retailers, or behind-the-scenes video — content that’s worth something to a relatively small number of superfans but won’t capture the interest of casual fans.

Emerging markets will keep emerging — but will stay that way for some time

As streaming growth slows in the U.S. and Europe, all eyes are on emerging markets — countries in South America, Africa and the Middle East. The growth is impressive, and the excitement is palpable, but some of these markets account for so little revenue that it will take some time for them to matter as much as people expect. For the next decade, most of them will bring in less revenue than vinyl records in the U.S.

At least one major star will go all-in on Trump — and many fans won’t care

As Trump prepares to take office, the resistance is losing its persistence — especially in the media business. Walt Disney Company CEO Bob Iger signed off on subsidiary ABC’s settlement with Trump, and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced that the company would prioritize free speech, in a way that looks like he kissed Trump’s ring. Before 2026, at least one major pop star will follow, either out of genuine enthusiasm or just because it’s easier. The expected outrage will not materialize.