How Surprise Efforts Grow Country’s Fan Base and Evolve the Format

Surprise!

When Morgan Wallen dropped a new song on Dec. 30, the move came as a double surprise. For starters, the world hadn’t known it was on the way, and “Smile” gave his fans an unexpected bonus to start off 2025. Additionally, the video followed a plot in which Wallen gave fictitious TV producers an unwelcome surprise, performing “Smile” for an in-studio audience when the rundown — and the teleprompter — were queued up for “Love Somebody.”

In the process, Wallen toyed with one of the keys to a successful music career: the art of surprise. It can take all kinds of forms, be it an unpromoted album release, such as Eric Church‘s 2015 project Mr. Misunderstood; an unannounced concert walk-on, as when Willie Nelson appeared onstage during an Oct. 11 performance by Chris Stapleton in Austin; or a simple fashion decision, a la Dolly Parton‘s Dallas Cowboys cheerleader outfit during a Thanksgiving 2023 halftime show. 

“We’re in a world where click bait is everything,” independent artist Chris Housman says. “If you’re watching a movie, you want to be shocked, too. I think it applies to music.”

The word “surprise” is rarely used in connection with a creative target in country music, though surprises often fuel the genre’s songs. The hesitation when Megan Moroney says, “Wait,” in the middle of “Am I Okay?” is a head-turner the first time a listener hears it. The tight, in-your-face harmonies in Dan + Shay‘s “Speechless” carried a level of surprise when that song arrived in 2018. And the odd use of the fishing-related noun “spinner bait” as a verb in Justin Moore‘s current “Time’s Ticking” has a what-did-I-hear value that subtly encourages fans to lean in further to decipher the story.

“I’ve had songs in the past where you look at the title and you think it’s going to be one thing, and then it turns out to be something completely different,” Moore says. “I always like that, when songs surprise you.”

Not everyone does. Radio programmers have operated for decades under the belief that most of their audience is looking for songs they already know they like. When they’re surprised with a new song, they tend to want one that sounds like it already belongs — either the voice is familiar or the general sound of the music fits with what they already know.

“That’s what we’re all chasing, is that fine line of something that’s special and shocking, but also familiar to the fans that we’ve already cultivated,” Carly Pearce says. “How do we make new fans? How do we stretch it within the margins of our artistry? I mean, I think about it all the time: How do I elevate but still keep the base?”

Collaborations often create surprise, allowing both artists to maintain their sound while they develop a joint presence, as Pearce discovered in duet singles with Stapleton, Lee Brice and Ashley McBryde. Cover songs can do that, too — particularly when they’re not obvious. Tigirlily Gold, for example, has caught fans off guard by segueing from “Blonde” into “9 to 5” during concerts, while Drew Baldridge has occasionally slid Dua Lipa‘s most unlikely “Levitating” into his set list.

“People are like, ‘What is happening? This country dude is singing some pop song?’ ” Baldridge says. “That’s really fun. With our set, we try to throw in some songs that people wouldn’t expect some big country boy to do.”

Streaming platforms and social media have built much of their models around the idea of providing subscribers a steady flow of new content — surprises that, thanks to algorithms built to determine users’ tastes, are designed to land favorably.

Streaming has, as the industry knows well, put a major dent in albums’ popularity, and some of that shift is a result of artists uploading a steady flow of new music that feeds fans’ demand for content. Thus, artists now provide surprises to their audience on a regular basis. But in the process, particularly when those songs are advance releases that tease upcoming projects, they take away some of the unknowns that were historically part of the album experience. 

“Back in the day, when the Eric Church record would come out, you would go to the store and buy it,” Dylan Marlowe recalls. “You had no idea what was on it, and that was the coolest part to me.”

Thus, those tracks pushed out in advance of an album might bring attention to the project, but releasing too many might actually prove detrimental.

“I think it gives it a shorter shelf life,” Marlowe suggests. “There’s just no surprise. You’ve heard [some of the songs] a million times before you’ve even heard it.”

Heavy repetition is desirable — more performances equal higher royalties — but it also changes the effect of the music. When Little Big Town released “Pontoon” in 2012, the odd sound of the opening instrumental riff — a stinging combination of mandolin and a programmed keyboard — was such a cool surprise that listeners wanted to hear it over and over. But as the song aged, that repetition changed the riff from an edgy, sonic curveball to a comfortable mainstream offering. It’s that constant evolution, from fresh and surprising to familiar and safe, that continues to challenge music makers to find new ways to spark listeners’ imaginations.

“If the surprise is the same surprise over and over again, people are going to get bored,” says songwriter Laura Veltz (“The Bones,” “What If I Never Get Over You”). “You can’t say the same joke over and over again, right? But as a creator, my job is to create a new surprise. Every single time new music is released, the game changes. We have to ebb and flow. That’s the job; that’s the game.” 

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